In this second-to-last pre-election episode of Cast Iron Brains, we do about what you’d expect us to do a week out from the election. Don’t forget to go here and complete your entry in the CIB 2020 Election Forecast Game in order to secure your chance to win a fabulous* prize. (*Prize is not fabulous.) Below you’ll find the latest version of the CIB Official Election Forecast Model, among other links and things discussed in this week’s episode. Enjoy!
As long-time listeners will remember, we’re sourcing our Trump approval rating information from Civiqs. Check out the latest info at their website.
Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed by the Senate 52-48. Read how noted fuckall Mitch McConnell got her through so quickly, via the New York Times.
Here’s the full text of the SCOTUS decision to not vacate a Seventh Circuit decision, which, had they vacated, could have resulted in Wisconsin continuing to accept absentee ballots for up to six days after November 3rd, which would have contravened Wisconsin state law. Politico and the Times have summaries of the dueling concurrences and dissents. Philip Bump at WaPo and Mark Joseph Stern at Slate take issue with the Kavanaugh concurrence, and are quite dramatically worried about what it might portend for post-election, pre-decision litigation before the Court. National Review offers a more measured explanation of the differences between what Roberts had to say about the case in contrast with Gorsuch’s and Kavanaugh’s position. Basically this: Roberts is unlikely to accept federal courts’ interference with states’ election laws and rules, but is more sympathetic to state courts’ rulings on such matters, while Gorsuch and Kavanaugh offer what looks like total deference to law long on the books, with little respect for even state courts’ attempt to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the franchise. Where will Amy Coney Barrett align, between the two conservative positions? Only time will tell.
Trump’s tweet that we talked about, with Twitter’s warning labels, or whatever they are:
Here’s the version of the 60 Minutes interview that the Trump campaign leaked after Trump complained that Leslie Stahl had been “unfair.”
And the 60 Minutes edit of the interview, which seems relatively fine, actually.
Here’s a link to anti-woke activist(?) James Lindsey’s self-flagellating apologia for his (inevitable) Trump vote, if you feel the need to hear it out of his pained mouth. This person is not nearly as serious or smart as he seems to think himself.
And Rich Lowry’s middle-finger take, and the New York Post’s “it’ll really tick off Hollywood” endorsement. These are all dumb opinions, but Rich should feel particularly bad because he’s not even offering an actual opinion, just nodding in the general direction of other people’s bad opinions. Eat shit “ConceptualJames,” and Rich Lowry, and the New York Post—own your feelings, don’t pretend like Trump is good because he gets under the skin of your imaginary twitter enemies.